In aggregate, the equity markets rose in June, but the rally was not particularly broad. The S&P 500 rose by over 3.5% while smaller companies, represented by the Russell 2000, fell. Outside the US, developed markets also fell, but emerging market stocks rallied. Momentum was strong among the companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence and those benefiting from those heavy capital expenditures. The excitement over the technology seems rational, but whether the economics justify the heavy investment remains to be seen. At this point, it is a multi-trillion-dollar unanswerable question.
In the bond market, rates fell somewhat as economic data turned more mixed. Credit markets, despite pockets of distress, have continued to hold up. The labor market seems to have cooled off and appears to be functioning consistently with decelerating inflation expectations. As we write this, inflation data has turned more constructive, with June finally seeing a meaningful deceleration of shelter inflation. Real-time indicators have told a different shelter story for over a year, and given the lags in the government’s data, this could be the start of a longer deceleration trend. The combination of a softening labor market and more constructive inflation data could pave the way for the Fed to begin an easing cycle.